You'll hear plenty of dip-buying pitches on NQ this morning, so here's the other side of the desk: I'm not trading it this week. December NQ has bled 5,250 points since its Oct 6 high, the last 4 weeks all closed red, and nothing on my chart says the bleeding has stopped.
The chart says short, so the long side waits
Friday's close sat under the weekly 50 EMA and under the July low. That's a short read, and on a short read I don't go hunting for a bottom. I let the market prove there is one.
The tape underneath is no friendlier. The Democratic sweep got sold as a policy story and turned into an AI unwind within days, the same crowded-book flush I took apart last week. Now Nvidia's board is investigating reports that Jensen Huang was a spying target. So the AI leader that could haul NQ back up walks into this week carrying its own headline risk.
Tuesday is a coin I won't flip
October CPI lands Tuesday at 7:30 AM CT, and the consensus wants a month at half of September's pace. After Friday's jobs beat, the market already leans hard toward a December hike, so a hot print feeds the exact bet that's been hurting NQ.
Buying the knife the night before that print isn't conviction. It's a lottery ticket with a stop attached. My screens stay on Tuesday morning; my order ticket stays shut.
Here's what changes my mind: a daily settle above 28,180, the weekly 50 EMA on my back-adjusted chart. Above it, I'm long again. Below it, no trade means exactly that: nothing to fill, nothing at risk.
Flat is a position too. This week it's the only one I'll hold.
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