LAST WEEK, HERE → "Sell 26,142, out on a daily settle above 26,283, TP1 25,835."
The offer was never paid.
The week topped at 26,093, 49 points under my price, and then 776 points fell to 25,317 with the order untouched.
TP1 and the pay zone both printed, both without me.
The read was right; the fill was never there.
THE SETUP: SHORT
3 straight weeks of lower lows, and the shelf at 26,585–26,665 cracked: the market sits 240 points under the weekly pivot and 30 under the week's VWAP.
My 26,142 offer never got paid — the top was 26,093, 49 points short, and 776 points fell without me.
I will not be that greedy again.
Monday failed at 25,557, under Friday's close, and the 5 sessions of buyers trapped between 25,759 and 26,093 are the lid.
Sell 25,557, out on a daily settle above 25,666, TP1 25,317, paid at 25,238–24,890.
The 1 number is 25,317, last week's low: hold it and bounces come into my offer; lose it and the drain to 24,890 opens.
THE CATALYSTS (CET)
Mon 14 — Lagarde 17:15 CET; she speaks as the cash market shuts, so the evening futures carry it.
Tue 15 — German ZEW 11:00 CET, a 42.7 forecast already priced; the bulls need it to hold 25,317.
Wed 16 — THE day: FOMC 20:00 CET, a 25 bp hike to 4.00% priced; the DAX pays Thursday morning.
Thu 17 — Euro-area final CPI 11:00 CET; a hot core would keep the ECB hawkish.
Fri 18 — German PPI 08:00 CET, Lagarde 12:30; Friday decides who holds risk into the weekend.
GEKKQUANT'S BOTTOM LINE
3 weeks of lower lows, a shelf at 26,585–26,665 that finally cracked, and a bounce that failed Monday at 25,557 — I sell it.
The buyers who paid 25,759–26,093 across 5 sessions are the lid; I want to be in front of them.
25,317 pays, 25,238–24,890 pays properly.
A daily settle above the weekly pivot at 25,666 means the sellers lost the week — that close kills the short.
Not financial advice · education only. Manage your own risk.