LAST WEEK, HERE → "bid 29,436, out on a daily settle under 29,274, paid at the lid 29,811–29,871."
The bid filled and the level gave way: Thursday ran 29,043.25 and settled 29,135, through the out, and last week's long graded 610 points and 2R in the red.
Friday closed 29,387 — 10 points under the pivot that now caps every bounce.
THE SETUP: SHORT
The floor that held 4 weeks broke in 1 morning.
The weekly says it without decoration: 4 lows bunched inside 116 points since August, then a 389-point gap under all of them, with a hike to 4.00% on Wednesday.
The daily says do not chase the break: this morning's reclaim ran 81 points over S1, touched 29,111 and died there, so the bounce is my trade.
The plan is on the chart: sell 29,030, out on a daily settle over 29,397, door 1 at 28,816, paid at 28,673–28,408.
The number to watch: 28,927 — the old floor; settle back over it and the gap was a trap.
THE CATALYSTS (CT)
Mon 14 — No Tier-1 data. A 389-point gap under the 4-week floor; the reclaim died at 29,111.
Tue 15 — No Tier-1 data. The last quiet session before the Fed; 29,030 is where I sell.
Wed 16 — Retail sales 07:30 CT, the Fed at 13:00: a hike to 4.00% and new projections.
Thu 17 — Philly Fed 07:30 CT (28.9 against 47.4 prior) and claims — the growth test.
Fri 18 — No Tier-1 data, quarterly expiry: 29,030 or 28,673 — the strikes decide the close.
GEKKQUANT'S BOTTOM LINE
4 weeks of lows bunched inside 116 points, and 1 morning erased them — that is a market repricing into a hike, not noise.
So I sell the bounce at 29,030 and let the Fed do the work: door 1 at 28,816, paid at 28,673 toward the 28,408 July low.
Last week's long got the level right and still lost 610 points, so this trade dies on a daily settle over 29,397 — reclaim the pivot and 28,927 was a flush, not a break.
Not financial advice · education only. Manage your own risk.