THE BIG PICTURE — Weekly.
DAX reached for 25,353 a second time this week — the exact wall that capped it last week — and got thrown straight back, trading down to 24,770 and sitting near 24,787, a weekly candle down ~1.6%. The rally died at a clean double-top and the tape rolled over, slicing back below the weekly pivot at 25,105. The one thing keeping the bulls alive: price is still above the rising weekly EMA at 24,702, so the bigger picture is a pullback, not a breakdown — yet. Lose 24,702 on a weekly close and that story changes fast.
THE SWING — Daily.
Price is now below both the daily EMA (24,962) and the 4H EMA (24,964) and has lost the prior-day low at 24,896. Near-term momentum belongs to the sellers. Until DAX reclaims 24,896 and then the 24,962 EMA cluster overhead, rallies into resistance are there to be faded, not chased. The week’s low at 24,770 is the bulls’ line in the sand; lose it and the 24,702 weekly EMA is the next magnet.
THE WEEK’S MAP — 4H.
Upside: 24,896 (PDL) → 24,962 (daily/4H EMA) → 25,105 (the line) → 25,264 (PDH) → 25,353 (week high / double-top) — only on a reclaim and hold.
Downside: 24,770 (week low — defend) → 24,702 (weekly EMA) → 24,516 (prior-week low / S2).
One number all week: 25,105. Above it the bulls have a case; below it, it’s a sellers’ tape — and 24,702 is the trapdoor.
THE CATALYSTS (CET).
Mon 22 — ECB’s Lagarde speaks 15:00 & 17:25 CET. Rate-path tone — the week’s first cue.
Tue 23 — French & German Flash PMIs 09:15 / 09:30 CET. First growth pulse for the bloc — the week’s mover.
Wed 24 — German ifo Business Climate 10:00 CET. Sentiment check; ifo can swing the open.
Thu 25 — German GfK 08:00, ECB Economic Bulletin 10:00 CET. Light; US tape leads risk.
Fri 26 — Quiet: Nagel speaks + Italian auction only. No Tier-1; price & positioning lead.
GEKKQUANT’S BOTTOM LINE.
DAX showed its hand: it ran the same 25,353 wall twice, got rejected, lost the daily EMA and the prior-day low, and is now leaning on its weekly low. That’s sellers in control until proven otherwise. Reclaim 24,896, then 24,962, then the 25,105 line and the bulls are back in business; lose 24,770 and the 24,702 weekly EMA is where the real fight is — break that and the uptrend is done. Don’t buy weakness on hope. The tape rejected the highs twice — make it prove the bid before you trust it.